UCLA Anderson Forecast of Rising CA Home Prices

“According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the preliminary unemployment rate in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont areas for September 2011 declined to 9.2 percent. And, based on the State’s Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in San Francisco’s metropolitan area is currently at 8.7 percent, the lowest in California.”

“The same panel of UCLA economists who earlier warned the California housing bubble was going to burst is now predicting homes prices are ready to rebound. The UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates an 11.5 percent price jump next year. The forecast calls for another 10 percent increase in 2013 and a median price of nearly $440,000 by 2017 that would represent a 52 ∏ percent increase over today’s prices.”

Just FYI: the UCLA Anderson forecasts have been unrelentingly gloomy for a very long time, so this is a big turnaround in their forecast:

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“UCLA economists forecast that California home prices will rise steadily over the next six years, although the recovery in home sales isn’t projected to begin until 2013.

The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted that the median price of an existing single-family home will increase 52.5% by 2017, rising to $438,980.
This year’s median house price is projected to be $287,904, down 0.3% from 2010.
But home prices are projected to turn around in 2012 — jumping 11.5% to $321,138 next year, then rising 10% more in 2013 to $353,411. The recovery is expected to run through 2017.
But house prices still will be below the housing market’s 2006 peak of $560,408 more than 10 years down the road, failing to retake that pinnicle by 2017.
The sales recovery won’t get under way until 2013, the statewide forecast shows. UCLA forecast that:

  • California home sales will drop to 483,132 single-family home transactions in 2012, down 1.4% from this year’s projected level of 490,137.
  • Sales will climb from 2013 through 2015, hitting a high-water mark of 547,945 transactions that year.
  • By 2017, however, sales will settle back to 507,842 transactions — just 3.6% higher than this year’s projected total.
  • By comparison, California house sales totaled nearly 625,000 transactions a year in 2004 and 2005.”
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